| China is intensifying its crackdown on lavish spending. South East Asian LDRs are rising above 100 all over. Investment banks are shrinking, and GEMS commercial banks may FINALLY figure out that mobile phone banking is 98% cheaper than branches. Think about it — US banks closed 1,500 branches across the US and branches have been declining since 2010. GEMS banks will figure this out soon.Dubai is taking market share. Japan is really cheap now. Even Italian retail shops are much cheaper than Hong Kong and Singapore shops….. Furthermore, retail rent spaces in HK and Singapore have never been higher
We are rolling out some credit work on property companies since property collateral is the vital link for the asset side of any bank. We know that liability deposits are tapped out. Therefore, the funding of assets may be a problem. Singapore is more of a problem than Hong Kong. China has the worst credit quality across the region but these counters have ALL been decimated
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Paul Schulte has had a career in equity research which spans 22 years on both the buy and sell sides covering the Asian and emerging markets. He also has 5 years of government policy experience in emerging markets. He has been frequently ranked in top-five…read more
